Skousen: Korean Military Forces – The Matchup — NK has too many artillery units to take out pre-emptively, so the US will not be able to stop Kim’s ability to do some damage to the South

World Affairs Brief, August 11, 2017 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.

Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).

This Week’s Analysis:

Trump’s Red Line on North Korea

Korean Military Forces: The Matchup

Will There be War with North Korea?

Trump Disappoints Congressional Republicans

The McMaster Controversy

Russian Hack was Physically Impossible over Internet

Preparedness Tip: Best Rechargeable Batteries

[…]

KOREAN MILITARY FORCES: THE MATCH UP

In terms of ground troops, the United States has 28,500 troops in South Korea but only about 15,000 of those are combat troops. That’s not nearly enough to combat NK’s estimated 100,000 troops, 70% of which are stationed on or near the DMZ, housed in hardened bunker type living quarters. South Korea’s armed forces number approximately 50,000 personnel. SK has universal military service and is considered well trained. The US also has about 28,000 troops in South Korea and 39,000 combat troops in Okinawa, Japan—almost 14,000 of which are Marines.

However, the key to any military plan’s success lies in pre-emptively striking NK’s offensive capability first and then preparing to attack the men and equipment it will use in the expected retaliation. That can only be done quickly and effectively with air power and missiles.

A proper pre-emptive strike on NK would involve cruise missile attacks on NK’s 15 combat airfields, 11 of which are for fighter aircraft. NK has some obsolete Mig 15, 17 and 19 aircraft but the bulk of its fighter force is composed of 150 Mig-21’s which have limited combat capabilities against the hundreds of modern F-16, and F-15 fighters manned by South Korea. NK only has 40 modern Mig-29 aircraft which have long range missile combat capabilities.

The US also has two major air bases in South Korea, Osan where the 7th Air Force is located and Kunsan Airbase where the 8th fighter wing is located. The 7th AF has modern versions of the F-16 and the venerable A-10 attack aircraft—the best ground attack aircraft in the world. The Marines also have 8 F-35s in the country which are the most capable aircraft in the world at tracking and attacking multiple targets at long distances.

Even with all that modern capability, it would probably take a week or two of intensive aerial combat to gain air superiority over Korean skies because of the high number of NK aircraft. That time could be reduced significantly if enough destruction is aimed at NK airfields in the first pre-emptive strike. That would be accomplished first by a surprise wave of cruise missile strikes, and followed up by high altitude bombing by B-52, and B-1 bombers, which can carry much more total destructive power than cruise missiles. In the US attack on the Syrian air base, almost 20% of the Tomahawk missiles missed their target and the air base was back in operation within a week, so cruise missiles are a costly and not completely effective solution.

In order to counter NK’s significant retaliatory capability, the US and South Korea would have to intensively target and destroy NK’s artillery and rocket units, numbering some 20k tubes in total, plus a number of 240 and 300mm rocket launchers within range of the South Korean capital of Seoul. Having the nation’s capitol within range gives NK’s artillery a decided advantage since attack is almost instantaneous.

NK has an estimated 12,000 pieces of tube artillery and 2,300 pieces of multiple launch rocket artillery. The majority of tube artillery are 122mm, 130mm, 152mm and 170mm units, and their rocket launchers are either 240mm or 300mm units.

While many of those artillery pieces are relatively unprotected near the DMZ, a large number of the long-range self-propelled 122mm and 170mm pieces as well as rocket launchers are dug into the north side of the mountain ranges where they can emerge to shoot and then duck back into their tunnels for protection. The US can only counter this threat after air superiority is reached when they can keep constant combat patrols circling overhead ready to attack them when they emerge.

As for smaller and more numerous artillery batteries near the DMZ, there are simply too many targets for an effective pre-emptive strike, even with all the military capability of the USA, so the US and SK would have to rely on carpet bombing of artillery rich areas once they start firing, as well as counter-artillery batteries to take them out over time. Counter-artillery batteries have precise radar tracking technology that can pinpoint the origin of an artillery shell and take out the unit doing the firing—but it’s a slow, time-consuming process to eliminate thousands of units.

But it must be done. If allowed to fire uninhibited for even an hour or two, these artillery forces can reap a lot of destruction on Seoul, which is filled with glass commercial buildings in the central district.

(video) Joel Skousen on The Alex Jones Show 7/11/17: North Korea, Syria, Trump & Putin

Joel Skousen from 1:40:00 to 2:14:00

Alex Jones (FULL Commercial Free) Tue. 7/11/17: Craig Sawyer, Leo Zagami, Joel Skousen, Jerome Corsi

Published on Jul 11, 2017

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Date: Monday July 11, 2017
Today on The Alex Jones Show
Tuesday, July 11 – FEC Targets Drudge, Infowars – FEC Democrats are directly challenging the First Amendment rights of the Drudge Report, Breitbart and Infowars by threatening subpoenas to investigate their “editorial decisions.” Pope insider Leo Zagami reveals more on the Vatican and he collaborates live on air with former Navy SEAL Craig Sawyer who’s helping with international investigations. Geopolitical analyst Joel Skousen and DC correspondent Jerome Corsi also break down international and domestic developments respectively. Tune in!

Skousen: US Missile Defense Lacking

World Affairs Brief, May 19, 2017 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.

Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).

[…]

US MISSILE DEFENSE LACKING

Finally, another article on the latest missile defense technology is pertinent to the US ability to stop Kim Jong-Un from following through with his limited ability to send a missile to Hawaii or Alaska. The British Daily Mail takes a look at the new “state-of-the-art Navy vessel that’s designed to shoot down Kim Jong-Un’s ballistic missiles before they start World War Three.” There are errors in this article, which I will point out.

A state-of-the-art navy vessel designed to intercept ballistic missiles is set to be tested later this month. The MV Pacific Collector detects the missile via GPS [This is in error. GPS doesn’t detect missile launches, although other military satellites can.] and shoots out a vehicle which smashes into a warhead in mid-flight to disable it. Known as ground-based mid-course defense, the ship is in port at Aloha Tower in Hawaii for a key upcoming ballistic missile defense test.

The news comes as North Korea test-launched a ballistic missile that flew for half an hour and reached an altitude of 1,240 miles before landing in the Sea of Japan – a flight pattern that could indicate a new type of missile.

The only thing new about this is that US experts are saying this latest ballistic missile is the first fully home developed rocket by North Korea that doesn’t rely on foreign rocket engines. How they can tell that from photographs or rocket telemetry is a mystery to me.

Admiral Harry Harris, head of US Pacific Command, warned Congress that the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, ‘is clearly in a position to threaten Hawaii today’. Currently, the US has 36 ground-based interceptors placed in Alaska and California to theoretically protect the US from a nuclear missile attack. That number will increase to 44 this year.

However, in December, a Pentagon weapons testing office rated the $40 billion system as having low reliability. The ground-based system has a record of nine out of 17 successful intercepts since 1999, or a 53 percent success rate.

One of the problems with this kind of missile system is that it uses a “kinetic” warhead— essentially a big hunk of highly dense material (depleted Uranium, etc.) which has to make direct contact with the incoming missile to destroy it. It is not an explosive warhead that can disable a target even during a near miss. [like Russia’s – editor]

I suspect the US continues using these kinds of “hit vehicles” because they don’t want to really stop a pre-emptive strike by Russia and China, who are developing maneuvering warheads. I do think, however, that current US ABM interceptors could stop several of North Korea’s plain Jane ballistic missiles.

(4 min video) North Korea Satellites ‘IN PLACE For Devastating EMP Attack On U.S’

Can North Korea Attack The U.S. Power Grid?

Electromagnetic pulse attack on Hawaii would devastate the state

VERY IMPORTANT! EMP IS OUR BIGGEST THREAT right now. And it’s EASY and CHEAP to protect the grid. So why isn’t our government doing it???

– –

The concern regarding the threat of an EMP attack on Hawaiʻi’s electrical grid and communications systems “is real and must be taken seriously,” said U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaiʻi. “Almost every aspect of our lives is reliant on electricity, much more so than in 1962 — everything from banking to health care to communications to automobiles — so you can imagine the devastating impact such an attack could have.” In Hawaiʻi, there is an added layer of risk even if the attack were not directed at Hawaiʻi, Gabbard said. “If an attack occurred on the mainland and the electric grid were shut down on the West Coast, it would create a crisis in Hawaiʻi through the total disruption of our food and energy supply chain.”

Story and Video

Skousen: Trump Backing Down on North Korea, For Now — This indicates war isn’t imminent but it’s coming sooner than when China will be ready to join NK. Whether or not they will becomes the big question. If they do, we’ll have WWIII early than I expected, if not, there will have to be another trigger event for WWIII later on when China and Russia are ready

World Affairs Brief, April 28, 2017 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.

Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).

This Week’s Analysis:

Trump Continues to Disappoint

The Voices Trump Listens to

Trump Backing Down on North Korea–For Now

French Election: Ganging Up Against Le Pen

Death of US Military Through Feminism

Don’t Drive in Some European Countries

News Shorts

Preparedness Tip: Vitamin C

[…]

TRUMP BACKING DOWN ON NORTH KOREA–FOR NOW

Naive US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, claims that Chinese pressure on North Korea is working. She’s merely repeating what was presented at the Senate briefing at the White House South auditorium this week. It was an hour briefing led by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, and Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats. None are high level intelligence officials so it was all second-hand information.

Senators who oppose Trump, like John McCain and Lindsey Graham and all the Democrats claimed they learned “nothing new.” Many Senators on certain committees get constant intelligence briefings as a matter of course, so obviously they aren’t going to learn much new.

But despite the disparaging remarks from Democrats, there was something new in the briefing, which was highlighted by the anti-Trump The Daily Beast.

“We want to solve this through political or economic measures,” a senior administration official [said] ….any unilateral strike would likely lead to a North Korean counter-strike on U.S. allies South Korea and Japan—both within artillery or missile range of North Korea—as well as threatening tens of thousands of U.S. troops stationed in the Pacific.

“We want to bring Kim Jong-Un to his senses, not to his knees,” said Adm. Harry Harris, Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, at a House Armed Services Committee hearing Wednesday. He repeated the administration mantra that “all options are on the table,” but the tone had decidedly shifted from President Donald Trump’s earlier provocative tweets.

The U.S. might lobby to put North Korea back on the list as a state sponsor of terror as one of many options to isolate the defiant Asian nation. It had been removed in 2008 under previous negotiations with the Bush administration.

“It’s clear we are in a phase where unless North Korea takes a more provocative action, attacks our allies, attacks us directly, this is a diplomatic phase,” Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, of Delaware, told The Daily Beast outside the White House after the meeting.

This means Trump is backing down from his vow to disarm North Korea and stop its constant provocations. However, in a wide ranging interview with Reuters, Trump seemed to hint that he thought war with North Korea was a very real possibility:

“There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely,” Trump said. “We’d love to solve things diplomatically, but it’s very difficult,” he added.

Trump continued to promote his naive assessment of China’s Premier Xi Jingpin as a wonderful person, and repeating the assurance that China has told NK not to do any more nuclear tests. My takeaway from this is that Trump is going to let this play out diplomatically, but that he’s skeptical (as he should be) and fully intends to use military action to stop NK’s nuclear and missile development, even if that means NK will respond by going to war with SK—which would draw in the US.

That means that war isn’t imminent but that it is coming sooner tha[n] when China will be ready to join in. Whether or not they will becomes the big question. If they do, we’ll have WWIII early than I expected, if not, there will have to be another trigger event for WWIII later on when China and Russia are ready.

The sanctions Trump is proposing are tougher than ever before, but only in stages, which indicates it’s going to take time to play out: cutoff of oil supplies and isolating NK from all international banking and internet connectivity. There won’t be any food or medical sanctions as they put on Iran, for “humanitarian reasons.” Wasn’t Iran worthy of humanitarian exceptions?

Heretofore, NK has relied on China to bypass any sanctions, but for now at least China appears to play along with the sanctions. But I’m still skeptical. Either China plans to cheat, which would be hard for the US to detect, or it will comply for a period of time to buy more time and try and get Kim to shut down the hostile rhetoric.

I think this does confirm that China really isn’t ready to go to war on behalf of NK, and is determined to make sure NK remains in check for the next few years. Frankly, I’m surprise at just how reactionary Kim Jong-Un has been lately. In response to Trump’s interview, NK said it has no intention of stopping its nuclear and missile programs. Kim seems to be aiming for a bruising war. If it’s all bluster in order to save face with the communist party radicals in NK, that’s one thing, but no one’s going to believe Kim is capable of compromise is he doesn’t tone down the threats. Personally, I think Trump is being suckered into a delay in taking out Kim. I feel the conflict with Kim is inevitable and the sooner he is removed, the better. For each year’s delay, NK only gets stronger.

The bottom line: War with NK is inevitable, but it may or may not lead to WWIII depending on China. There is now a shorter window to prepare….

[…]

As for an EMP blast, which will proceed a nuclear attack, nuclear plants will go off line and some cannot operate again without grid power to absorb their output. But an EMP would not affect the military’s ability to get diesel fuel to backup generators at a nuke plant to keep them from melting down.